Welcome to the The Rebellion’s 2015 NCAA Tournament preview. In this preview, I will go region by region, picking out my Winner, Upsets and possible Cinderellas. Without further ado, here are my picks:
MIDWEST REGION:
WINNER: It’s doubtful that the overall #1 seed Kentucky, currently 34-0 this season, will be stopped in the Midwest. However, don’t take too much stock in the undefeated regular season. The Wildcats play in the weak SEC – a conference that only had them and Arkansas representing in the AP Top 25. With that being said, Kentucky does not have a serious challenger in their region. They comfortably beat the #2 seed in the Midwest, Kansas, in the regular season. Look for them to roll through the Midwest and easily clinch a spot in the Final Four.
UPSET: Look for #12 seed Buffalo to beat the #5 seed West Virginia in the opening round. West Virginia are 6-6 in their last 12 games headed to the tournament, and starting guards Juwan Staten and Gary Browne both have nagging injury concerns. On the other side, Buffalo won the MAC tournament to get a berth in the field of 68, and riding an 8 game win streak since mid-February. I see the Mountaineers being upset by Buffalo here.
CINDERELLA: #7 seed Wichita State has nowhere near the expectations of last year, where they were a #1 seed, but they could make some real noise in the tournament. They should skate past a weak Indiana team in the opener, and I see them upsetting the #2 seed Kansas to make it to the Sweet 16. Wichita has won 18 out of their last 19, and an underwhelming Kansas team will be unable to overcome the Shocker’s energetic defense. I expect them to make a Sweet 16 run in this year’s tournament
WEST REGION:
WINNER: It’s impossible to hate on the #1 seed in this region either. The Wisconsin Badgers have one of their most efficient squads in years, with big man Frank Kaminsky leading the team’s high-powered offense. During their OT win in the Big 10 tournament final against Michigan State, they showed their cool under pressure by dominating the Spartans in the overtime period, eventually winning 80-69.
UPSET: As I said before, the SEC is crap competition. With that in mind, my West region upset is Wofford over Arkansas, another 12 seed beating a 5 seed. Wofford has won 15 of their last 16 headed into the tournament, and Wofford’s ability to take care of the ball will slow down Arkansas’ transition-heavy attack. The game will certainly be a close one, but Wofford will pull off the upset.
CINDERELLA: There’s no “cinderella story” in this region, but if the #4 seed UNC pulls off the Sweet 16 upset over Wisconsin, the sky is the limit for their tournament hopes. Obviously beating Wisconsin is no easy feat, but if anyone is going to knock off the #1 seed in the West, it’s going to be UNC’s high scoring offense. If Wisconsin stumbles, expect UNC to take the Final Four spot in the region.
EAST REGION
WINNER: There is no clear favorite in the East Region. The #1 seed, Villanova, went 32-2 but plays in the new Big East, which is nowhere near the conference it once was. Look for the #2 seed Virginia to come out the victor in this region. With the best defense in the NCAA – only 51 points per game allowed – no team in the East region has the weapons to overpower the Cavalier’s stifling D.
UPSET: Upsets are unlikely in the first round of the tournament, but in the Round of 32 watch for the likely matchup between #5 seed Northern Iowa and the #4 seed Louisville. UNI is one of the best shooting teams in the tournament, and shoot almost 40 percent from behind the arc. Louisville have a very shallow bench, and will not be able to keep pace if the game turns into a shootout.
CINDERELLA: Michigan State and Cinderella are not normally words associated with one another. Normally a perennial high seed, MSU are a #7 seed after a 23-11 regular season and a loss to Wisconsin in the Big 10 conference final. They’ve had trouble closing tight games, but expect Coach Tom Izzo to galvanize his team ahead of the tournament. If they can knock off Virginia, every team in the East should be wary of them. They have Final Four potential.
SOUTH REGION
WINNER: The road could not be easier for the #1 seed Duke. A weak #2 seed in Gonzaga, and the selection committee preposterously choosing Georgetown as a #4 seed makes Duke’s path to the Final Four pretty simple. Duke’s high-scoring duo of Jahlil Okafor and Quinn Cook are a matchup problem for any team, and the team will be hungry for another banner for the legendary Coach Krzyzewski.
UPSET: Like I previously mentioned, Georgetown being a #4 seed is pretty ridiculous. 21-10 in the Big East is nowhere near the resume needed to be a #4 seed. An embarrassing loss to Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 and missing the tournament altogether in 2014 shows their lack of tournament success. Watch for that to continue this year when Eastern Washington sends them home in the first round once again.
CINDERELLA: Davidson burst into the national consciousness in 2008, when phenom Steph Curry – now one of the most electrifying players in the NBA – lit up the tournament and led the Wildcats to the Elite 8. Although Davidson doesn’t have a Curry in this year’s roster, they are a scrappy, fighting team. Give them a fighting chance in the second round against Gonzaga in the second round – deja vu to the opening round of 2008, where they fell Gonzaga.
Those are the predictions for the opening round. Stay tuned for our later round picks next week.
