On Oct. 28, 2025 Hurricane Melissa, a category five storm, is estimated to make landfall on the Jamaican coast. Hurricanes have five levels, defined as one with winds over 155mph, and Melissa is expected to fall into that category. This hurricane is considered the worst storm in the history of the island. The storm will bring strong wind, rain and flooding. Winds are estimated to reach 175 miles per hour (mph). The hurricane will have a storm surge of 13 feet and the rainfall will be up to 40 inches. 1.5 million Jamaicans are expected to be impacted by this storm, over half of the population.
The cause of such an extreme hurricane is climate change, hurricane Melissa has been fueled by the Caribbean’s unusually hot ocean temperatures this year. The path of this hurricane is about 2.5 degrees higher than the average 0 degrees fahrenheit, so over the course of the entire hurricane it has been 500 to 800 times hotter than an average hurricane. The hurricane had two days of rapid development bringing it from a tropical storm into a category five hurricane in the span of 48 hours. Due to climate change making the oceans hotter, the rapid growth and intensity of hurricanes have become more common. The increased temperatures produce higher rainfall and stronger winds in hurricanes, which is seen in Melissa.
The storm is not estimated to make landfall until the afternoon, but the Caribbean is already facing the effects. Seven people have already died from the storm as of Oct. 28, three people from Jamaica, three people from Haiti and one person from the Dominican Republic. Jamaica’s coastal communities have already been put under mandatory evacuation due to the expected heavy flooding.
Usually, as a hurricane approaches land will shed its original eyewall, the strongest part of the hurricane, and form a larger one. As it sheds the eyewall, the storm and winds will weaken, but for hurricane Melissa the weakening of the storm will not help. It will be too small to make a significant difference on the impact for Jamaica.
Due to the severe impacts that Jamaica faced from the last severe hurricane in the area, Hurricane Beryl, in July of 2024, the country has increased their hurricane precautions. The country has begun to build seawalls on the ground used to reduce wind impact and have made backup generators in case of power outages. 800 shelters have been made out of schools and other community buildings for the citizens that will be displaced by Melissa and its fallout.
Jamaica is not the only country that will be impacted by this storm. Several other islands in the area, such as Haiti, Cuba and parts of the Bahamas will be impacted The Caribbean has never experienced a hurricane at this level before.
